An aging vehicle fleet, rising ADAS adoption, and increasing repair complexity are expected to drive market expansion past $500 billion by 2029. Canada’s aftermarket is also growing as older vehicles enter peak repair years.
SEMA Nov. 3, 2026 — The U.S. light-duty automotive aftermarket is projected to grow 5.2 per cent in 2026, with the market expected to surpass $500 billion by 2029, according to the 2026 Joint Channel Market Size and Forecast released by the Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers.
Prepared by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the forecast examines market conditions, vehicle trends, and consumer behaviour shaping demand for aftermarket parts, fluids, and service labour. The findings are published in the 2027 Auto Care Factbook.
Despite economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the associations expect continued growth, supported by consumers’ reliance on personal transportation and sustained demand for vehicle maintenance and repair.
Three factors driving growth
The forecast identifies three key trends expected to support aftermarket expansion through 2029.
An aging vehicle fleet: Older vehicles typically require more frequent maintenance and repairs, supporting demand for replacement parts and service work.
Increasing vehicle complexity: The growing use of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and other vehicle technologies is adding complexity to repair and maintenance procedures while increasing the technical requirements placed on service providers.
Continued reliance on personal transportation: Despite economic pressures, consumers continue to depend on their vehicles, helping sustain demand for aftermarket products and services.
The outlook aligns with a recent AAPEX industry survey, in which six in 10 aftermarket businesses expected parts and service demand to increase in 2026.
Canadian aftermarket also experiencing growth
Similar trends are supporting Canada’s automotive aftermarket, where an aging vehicle fleet is helping sustain demand for maintenance and repair services.
A survey by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, in partnership with the Automotive Aftermarket Retailers of Ontario, found that Canada’s aftermarket continued to grow in 2025 as vehicles sold between 2015 and 2019 entered their peak service years.
Among businesses surveyed, 31 per cent reported sales increases of one to five per cent in 2025, while another 19 per cent reported gains of six to 10 per cent. Looking ahead, 44 per cent expected sales to increase by one to five per cent in 2026.
However, parts availability and pricing remain concerns, particularly when sourcing original equipment manufacturer (OEM) components through new-vehicle dealerships.
Retail sales at Canada’s automotive parts, accessories, and tire stores increased 3.9 per cent in 2025, reaching a new high, according to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants.
The trend also shows up in vehicle service activity. J.D. Power’s 2025 Canada Customer Service Index—Long-Term Study found that Canadian motorists are keeping vehicles longer and visiting repair facilities more often. The average number of annual visits to aftermarket service facilities increased to 1.5 per vehicle, up from 1.3 in 2024.
Industry leaders point to continued resilience
“The U.S. automotive aftermarket remains fundamentally strong, supported by long-term vehicle and consumer trends,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO of the Auto Care Association. He noted that the forecast provides industry members with information to support business planning and investment decisions.
Emily Poladian, president of MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, said the industry’s growth potential reflects consumers’ continued commitment to maintaining and repairing their vehicles, alongside increasing vehicle complexity and an aging fleet.
The Joint Channel Forecast is developed collaboratively by the Auto Care Association, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, and S&P Global Market Intelligence, drawing on government data, industry information, and proprietary market modelling.
The full U.S. forecast is available through the 2027 Auto Care Factbook and the MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers website.